Zero-Shot Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with TabPFN 2.5 and nnetsauce

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Probabilistic time series forecasting has seen major progress in the last few years, with foundation models beginning to reshape what’s possible even for small datasets. In this post, we explore how TabPFN 2.5, a powerful pretrained transformer for tabular regression, can be combined with nnetsauce’s MTS framework to produce fast, distribution-aware forecasts for both univariate and multivariate series.

Using classic datasets such as AirPassengers, a10, and USAccDeaths, as well as a multivariate example linking ice cream sales and heater usage, we illustrate how TabPFN can be turned into a plug-and-play probabilistic forecaster. With just a few lines of code, we obtain prediction intervals, sample paths, and full predictive distributions, all while leveraging TabPFN’s zero-shot capabilities.

Pros: If you’re looking for a lightweight yet highly flexible approach to probabilistic forecasting—without training complex deep learning models—this workflow offers a powerful option.

Cons: The process can be slow.

!pip install --upgrade tabpfn-client

!pip install nnetsauce

import nnetsauce as ns
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns

from sklearn.linear_model import RidgeCV
from time import time
from tabpfn_client import init, TabPFNRegressor

url = "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Techtonique/datasets/main/time_series/univariate/AirPassengers.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url)
df.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(df.date)
df.drop(columns=['date'], inplace=True)
df_air = df.copy()

regr_tabpfn = ns.MTS(obj=TabPFNRegressor(model_path="v2.5_real"),
                     type_pi="scp2-kde",
                      replications=250,
                      kernel='gaussian',
                      lags=25, verbose=False,
                      show_progress=False)
start = time()
regr_tabpfn.fit(df_air)
regr_tabpfn.predict(h=40)
print("time: ", time() - start)

regr_tabpfn.plot(type_plot="pi")

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Thanks for being part of the journey

  TabPFN is under active development, please help us improve and report any bugs/ideas you find.

  Report issues: https://github.com/priorlabs/tabpfn-client/issues

  Press Ctrl+C anytime to exit

Opening browser for login. Please complete the login/registration process in your browser and return here.

Could not open browser automatically. Falling back to command-line login...

[1]     Create a TabPFN account     
[2]     Login to your TabPFN account
[q]     Quit

→ Choose (1/2/q):

Login

Email:

Password: ··········

Output()

Login successful!

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url = "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Techtonique/datasets/main/time_series/univariate/a10.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url)
df.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(df.date)
df.drop(columns=['date'], inplace=True)
df_a10 = df.diff().dropna().copy()

regr_tabpfn = ns.MTS(obj=TabPFNRegressor(model_path="v2.5_real"),
                     type_pi="scp2-kde",
                      replications=250,
                      kernel='gaussian',
                      lags=25, verbose=False,
                      show_progress=False)
start = time()
regr_tabpfn.fit(df_a10)
regr_tabpfn.predict(h=40)
print("time: ", time() - start)

regr_tabpfn.plot(type_plot="pi")

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import pandas as pd

url = "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Techtonique/datasets/main/time_series/univariate/USAccDeaths.csv"
df2 = pd.read_csv(url)
df2.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(df2.date)
df2.drop(columns=['date'], inplace=True)

df_usacc = df2.copy()

regr_tabpfn = ns.MTS(obj=TabPFNRegressor(model_path="v2.5_real"),
                     type_pi="scp2-kde",
                      replications=250,
                      kernel='gaussian',
                      lags=25, verbose=False,
                      show_progress=False)
start = time()
regr_tabpfn.fit(df_usacc)
regr_tabpfn.predict(h=40)
print("time: ", time() - start)

regr_tabpfn.plot(type_plot="pi")

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url = "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Techtonique/datasets/main/time_series/multivariate/ice_cream_vs_heater.csv"
df_temp = pd.read_csv(url)
df_temp.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(df_temp.date)
df = df_temp.drop(columns=['date']).diff().dropna()

df_heat = df.copy()

regr_tabpfn = ns.MTS(obj=TabPFNRegressor(model_path="v2.5_real"),
                     type_pi="scp2-kde",
                      replications=250,
                      kernel='gaussian',
                      lags=25, verbose=False,
                      show_progress=False)
start = time()
regr_tabpfn.fit(df_heat)
regr_tabpfn.predict(h=40)
print("time: ", time() - start)

regr_tabpfn.plot("heater", type_plot="spaghetti")

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time:  145.63059449195862

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regr_tabpfn.plot("icecream", type_plot="spaghetti")

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Citation

For attribution, please cite this work as:

T. Moudiki (2025-12-10). Zero-Shot Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with TabPFN 2.5 and nnetsauce. Retrieved from https://thierrymoudiki.github.io/blog/2025/12/10/python/TabPFN-2-5-nnetsauce

BibTeX citation (remove empty spaces)
@misc{ tmoudiki20251210, author = { T. Moudiki }, title = { Zero-Shot Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with TabPFN 2.5 and nnetsauce }, url = { https://thierrymoudiki.github.io/blog/2025/12/10/python/TabPFN-2-5-nnetsauce }, year = { 2025 } }

Under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

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Python version of Beyond ARMA-GARCH: leveraging model-agnostic Quasi-Randomized networks and conformal prediction for nonparametric probabilistic stock forecasting (ML-ARCH) Jun 3, 2025

Beyond ARMA-GARCH: leveraging model-agnostic Machine Learning and conformal prediction for nonparametric probabilistic stock forecasting (ML-ARCH) Jun 2, 2025

Permutations and SHAPley values for feature importance in techtonique dot net's API (with R + Python + the command line) Jun 1, 2025

Which patient is going to survive longer? Another guide to using techtonique dot net's API (with R + Python + the command line) for survival analysis May 31, 2025

A Guide to Using techtonique.net's API and rush for simulating and plotting Stochastic Scenarios May 30, 2025

Simulating Stochastic Scenarios with Diffusion Models: A Guide to Using techtonique.net's API for the purpose May 29, 2025

Will my apartment in 5th avenue be overpriced or not? Harnessing the power of www.techtonique.net (+ xgboost, lightgbm, catboost) to find out May 28, 2025

How long must I wait until something happens: A Comprehensive Guide to Survival Analysis via an API May 27, 2025

Harnessing the Power of techtonique.net: A Comprehensive Guide to Machine Learning Classification via an API May 26, 2025

Quantile regression with any regressor -- Examples with RandomForestRegressor, RidgeCV, KNeighborsRegressor May 20, 2025

Survival stacking: survival analysis translated as supervised classification in R and Python May 5, 2025

'Bayesian' optimization of hyperparameters in a R machine learning model using the bayesianrvfl package Apr 25, 2025

A lightweight interface to scikit-learn in R: Bayesian and Conformal prediction Apr 21, 2025

A lightweight interface to scikit-learn in R Pt.2: probabilistic time series forecasting in conjunction with ahead::dynrmf Apr 20, 2025

Extending the Theta forecasting method to GLMs, GAMs, GLMBOOST and attention: benchmarking on Tourism, M1, M3 and M4 competition data sets (28000 series) Apr 14, 2025

Extending the Theta forecasting method to GLMs and attention Apr 8, 2025

Nonlinear conformalized Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with R package 'rvfl' (and other models) Mar 31, 2025

Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting (predictive simulations) in Microsoft Excel using Python, xlwings lite and www.techtonique.net Mar 28, 2025

Conformalize (improved prediction intervals and simulations) any R Machine Learning model with misc::conformalize Mar 25, 2025

My poster for the 18th FINANCIAL RISKS INTERNATIONAL FORUM by Institut Louis Bachelier/Fondation du Risque/Europlace Institute of Finance Mar 19, 2025

Interpretable probabilistic kernel ridge regression using Matérn 3/2 kernels Mar 16, 2025

(News from) Probabilistic Forecasting of univariate and multivariate Time Series using Quasi-Randomized Neural Networks (Ridge2) and Conformal Prediction Mar 9, 2025

Word-Online: re-creating Karpathy's char-RNN (with supervised linear online learning of word embeddings) for text completion Mar 8, 2025

CRAN-like repository for most recent releases of Techtonique's R packages Mar 2, 2025

Presenting 'Online Probabilistic Estimation of Carbon Beta and Carbon Shapley Values for Financial and Climate Risk' at Institut Louis Bachelier Feb 27, 2025

Web app with DeepSeek R1 and Hugging Face API for chatting Feb 23, 2025

tisthemachinelearner: A Lightweight interface to scikit-learn with 2 classes, Classifier and Regressor (in Python and R) Feb 17, 2025

R version of survivalist: Probabilistic model-agnostic survival analysis using scikit-learn, xgboost, lightgbm (and conformal prediction) Feb 12, 2025

Model-agnostic global Survival Prediction of Patients with Myeloid Leukemia in QRT/Gustave Roussy Challenge (challengedata.ens.fr): Python's survivalist Quickstart Feb 10, 2025

A simple test of the martingale hypothesis in esgtoolkit Feb 3, 2025

Command Line Interface (CLI) for techtonique.net's API Jan 31, 2025

Gradient-Boosting and Boostrap aggregating anything (alert: high performance): Part5, easier install and Rust backend Jan 27, 2025

Just got a paper on conformal prediction REJECTED by International Journal of Forecasting despite evidence on 30,000 time series (and more). What's going on? Part2: 1311 time series from the Tourism competition Jan 20, 2025

Techtonique is out! (with a tutorial in various programming languages and formats) Jan 14, 2025

Univariate and Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasting with nnetsauce and TabPFN Jan 14, 2025

Just got a paper on conformal prediction REJECTED by International Journal of Forecasting despite evidence on 30,000 time series (and more). What's going on? Jan 5, 2025

Python and Interactive dashboard version of Stock price forecasting with Deep Learning: throwing power at the problem (and why it won't make you rich) Dec 31, 2024

Stock price forecasting with Deep Learning: throwing power at the problem (and why it won't make you rich) Dec 29, 2024

No-code Machine Learning Cross-validation and Interpretability in techtonique.net Dec 23, 2024

survivalist: Probabilistic model-agnostic survival analysis using scikit-learn, glmnet, xgboost, lightgbm, pytorch, keras, nnetsauce and mlsauce Dec 15, 2024

Model-agnostic 'Bayesian' optimization (for hyperparameter tuning) using conformalized surrogates in GPopt Dec 9, 2024

You can beat Forecasting LLMs (Large Language Models a.k.a foundation models) with nnetsauce.MTS Pt.2: Generic Gradient Boosting Dec 1, 2024

You can beat Forecasting LLMs (Large Language Models a.k.a foundation models) with nnetsauce.MTS Nov 24, 2024

Unified interface and conformal prediction (calibrated prediction intervals) for R package forecast (and 'affiliates') Nov 23, 2024

GLMNet in Python: Generalized Linear Models Nov 18, 2024

Gradient-Boosting anything (alert: high performance): Part4, Time series forecasting Nov 10, 2024

Predictive scenarios simulation in R, Python and Excel using Techtonique API Nov 3, 2024

Chat with your tabular data in www.techtonique.net Oct 30, 2024

Gradient-Boosting anything (alert: high performance): Part3, Histogram-based boosting Oct 28, 2024

R editor and SQL console (in addition to Python editors) in www.techtonique.net Oct 21, 2024

R and Python consoles + JupyterLite in www.techtonique.net Oct 15, 2024

Gradient-Boosting anything (alert: high performance): Part2, R version Oct 14, 2024

Gradient-Boosting anything (alert: high performance) Oct 6, 2024

Benchmarking 30 statistical/Machine Learning models on the VN1 Forecasting -- Accuracy challenge Oct 4, 2024

Automated random variable distribution inference using Kullback-Leibler divergence and simulating best-fitting distribution Oct 2, 2024

Forecasting in Excel using Techtonique's Machine Learning APIs under the hood Sep 30, 2024

Techtonique web app for data-driven decisions using Mathematics, Statistics, Machine Learning, and Data Visualization Sep 25, 2024

Parallel for loops (Map or Reduce) + New versions of nnetsauce and ahead Sep 16, 2024

Adaptive (online/streaming) learning with uncertainty quantification using Polyak averaging in learningmachine Sep 10, 2024

New versions of nnetsauce and ahead Sep 9, 2024

Prediction sets and prediction intervals for conformalized Auto XGBoost, Auto LightGBM, Auto CatBoost, Auto GradientBoosting Sep 2, 2024

Quick/automated R package development workflow (assuming you're using macOS or Linux) Part2 Aug 30, 2024

R package development workflow (assuming you're using macOS or Linux) Aug 27, 2024

A new method for deriving a nonparametric confidence interval for the mean Aug 26, 2024

Conformalized adaptive (online/streaming) learning using learningmachine in Python and R Aug 19, 2024

Bayesian (nonlinear) adaptive learning Aug 12, 2024

Auto XGBoost, Auto LightGBM, Auto CatBoost, Auto GradientBoosting Aug 5, 2024

Copulas for uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting Jul 28, 2024

Forecasting uncertainty: sequential split conformal prediction + Block bootstrap (web app) Jul 22, 2024

learningmachine for Python (new version) Jul 15, 2024

learningmachine v2.0.0: Machine Learning with explanations and uncertainty quantification Jul 8, 2024

My presentation at ISF 2024 conference (slides with nnetsauce probabilistic forecasting news) Jul 3, 2024

10 uncertainty quantification methods in nnetsauce forecasting Jul 1, 2024

Forecasting with XGBoost embedded in Quasi-Randomized Neural Networks Jun 24, 2024

Forecasting Monthly Airline Passenger Numbers with Quasi-Randomized Neural Networks Jun 17, 2024

Automated hyperparameter tuning using any conformalized surrogate Jun 9, 2024

Recognizing handwritten digits with Ridge2Classifier Jun 3, 2024

Forecasting the Economy May 27, 2024

A detailed introduction to Deep Quasi-Randomized 'neural' networks May 19, 2024

Probability of receiving a loan; using learningmachine May 12, 2024

mlsauce's `v0.18.2`: various examples and benchmarks with dimension reduction May 6, 2024

mlsauce's `v0.17.0`: boosting with Elastic Net, polynomials and heterogeneity in explanatory variables Apr 29, 2024

mlsauce's `v0.13.0`: taking into account inputs heterogeneity through clustering Apr 21, 2024

mlsauce's `v0.12.0`: prediction intervals for LSBoostRegressor Apr 15, 2024

Conformalized predictive simulations for univariate time series on more than 250 data sets Apr 7, 2024

learningmachine v1.1.2: for Python Apr 1, 2024

learningmachine v1.0.0: prediction intervals around the probability of the event 'a tumor being malignant' Mar 25, 2024

Bayesian inference and conformal prediction (prediction intervals) in nnetsauce v0.18.1 Mar 18, 2024

Multiple examples of Machine Learning forecasting with ahead Mar 11, 2024

rtopy (v0.1.1): calling R functions in Python Mar 4, 2024

ahead forecasting (v0.10.0): fast time series model calibration and Python plots Feb 26, 2024

A plethora of datasets at your fingertips Part3: how many times do couples cheat on each other? Feb 19, 2024

nnetsauce's introduction as of 2024-02-11 (new version 0.17.0) Feb 11, 2024

Tuning Machine Learning models with GPopt's new version Part 2 Feb 5, 2024

Tuning Machine Learning models with GPopt's new version Jan 29, 2024

Subsampling continuous and discrete response variables Jan 22, 2024

DeepMTS, a Deep Learning Model for Multivariate Time Series Jan 15, 2024

A classifier that's very accurate (and deep) Pt.2: there are > 90 classifiers in nnetsauce Jan 8, 2024

learningmachine: prediction intervals for conformalized Kernel ridge regression and Random Forest Jan 1, 2024

A plethora of datasets at your fingertips Part2: how many times do couples cheat on each other? Descriptive analytics, interpretability and prediction intervals using conformal prediction Dec 25, 2023

Diffusion models in Python with esgtoolkit (Part2) Dec 18, 2023

Diffusion models in Python with esgtoolkit Dec 11, 2023

Julia packaging at the command line Dec 4, 2023

Quasi-randomized nnetworks in Julia, Python and R Nov 27, 2023

A plethora of datasets at your fingertips Nov 20, 2023

A classifier that's very accurate (and deep) Nov 12, 2023

mlsauce version 0.8.10: Statistical/Machine Learning with Python and R Nov 5, 2023

AutoML in nnetsauce (randomized and quasi-randomized nnetworks) Pt.2: multivariate time series forecasting Oct 29, 2023

AutoML in nnetsauce (randomized and quasi-randomized nnetworks) Oct 22, 2023

Version v0.14.0 of nnetsauce for R and Python Oct 16, 2023

A diffusion model: G2++ Oct 9, 2023

Diffusion models in ESGtoolkit + announcements Oct 2, 2023

An infinity of time series forecasting models in nnetsauce (Part 2 with uncertainty quantification) Sep 25, 2023

(News from) forecasting in Python with ahead (progress bars and plots) Sep 18, 2023

Forecasting in Python with ahead Sep 11, 2023

Risk-neutralize simulations Sep 4, 2023

Comparing cross-validation results using crossval_ml and boxplots Aug 27, 2023

Reminder Apr 30, 2023

Did you ask ChatGPT about who you are? Apr 16, 2023

A new version of nnetsauce (randomized and quasi-randomized 'neural' networks) Apr 2, 2023

Simple interfaces to the forecasting API Nov 23, 2022

A web application for forecasting in Python, R, Ruby, C#, JavaScript, PHP, Go, Rust, Java, MATLAB, etc. Nov 2, 2022

Prediction intervals (not only) for Boosted Configuration Networks in Python Oct 5, 2022

Boosted Configuration (neural) Networks Pt. 2 Sep 3, 2022

Boosted Configuration (_neural_) Networks for classification Jul 21, 2022

A Machine Learning workflow using Techtonique Jun 6, 2022

Super Mario Bros © in the browser using PyScript May 8, 2022

News from ESGtoolkit, ycinterextra, and nnetsauce Apr 4, 2022

Explaining a Keras _neural_ network predictions with the-teller Mar 11, 2022

New version of nnetsauce -- various quasi-randomized networks Feb 12, 2022

A dashboard illustrating bivariate time series forecasting with `ahead` Jan 14, 2022

Hundreds of Statistical/Machine Learning models for univariate time series, using ahead, ranger, xgboost, and caret Dec 20, 2021

Forecasting with `ahead` (Python version) Dec 13, 2021

Tuning and interpreting LSBoost Nov 15, 2021

Time series cross-validation using `crossvalidation` (Part 2) Nov 7, 2021

Fast and scalable forecasting with ahead::ridge2f Oct 31, 2021

Automatic Forecasting with `ahead::dynrmf` and Ridge regression Oct 22, 2021

Forecasting with `ahead` Oct 15, 2021

Classification using linear regression Sep 26, 2021

`crossvalidation` and random search for calibrating support vector machines Aug 6, 2021

parallel grid search cross-validation using `crossvalidation` Jul 31, 2021

`crossvalidation` on R-universe, plus a classification example Jul 23, 2021

Documentation and source code for GPopt, a package for Bayesian optimization Jul 2, 2021

Hyperparameters tuning with GPopt Jun 11, 2021

A forecasting tool (API) with examples in curl, R, Python May 28, 2021

Bayesian Optimization with GPopt Part 2 (save and resume) Apr 30, 2021

Bayesian Optimization with GPopt Apr 16, 2021

Compatibility of nnetsauce and mlsauce with scikit-learn Mar 26, 2021

Explaining xgboost predictions with the teller Mar 12, 2021

An infinity of time series models in nnetsauce Mar 6, 2021

New activation functions in mlsauce's LSBoost Feb 12, 2021

2020 recap, Gradient Boosting, Generalized Linear Models, AdaOpt with nnetsauce and mlsauce Dec 29, 2020

A deeper learning architecture in nnetsauce Dec 18, 2020

Classify penguins with nnetsauce's MultitaskClassifier Dec 11, 2020

Bayesian forecasting for uni/multivariate time series Dec 4, 2020

Generalized nonlinear models in nnetsauce Nov 28, 2020

Boosting nonlinear penalized least squares Nov 21, 2020

Statistical/Machine Learning explainability using Kernel Ridge Regression surrogates Nov 6, 2020

NEWS Oct 30, 2020

A glimpse into my PhD journey Oct 23, 2020

Submitting R package to CRAN Oct 16, 2020

Simulation of dependent variables in ESGtoolkit Oct 9, 2020

Forecasting lung disease progression Oct 2, 2020

New nnetsauce Sep 25, 2020

Technical documentation Sep 18, 2020

A new version of nnetsauce, and a new Techtonique website Sep 11, 2020

Back next week, and a few announcements Sep 4, 2020

Explainable 'AI' using Gradient Boosted randomized networks Pt2 (the Lasso) Jul 31, 2020

LSBoost: Explainable 'AI' using Gradient Boosted randomized networks (with examples in R and Python) Jul 24, 2020

nnetsauce version 0.5.0, randomized neural networks on GPU Jul 17, 2020

Maximizing your tip as a waiter (Part 2) Jul 10, 2020

New version of mlsauce, with Gradient Boosted randomized networks and stump decision trees Jul 3, 2020

Announcements Jun 26, 2020

Parallel AdaOpt classification Jun 19, 2020

Comments section and other news Jun 12, 2020

Maximizing your tip as a waiter Jun 5, 2020

AdaOpt classification on MNIST handwritten digits (without preprocessing) May 29, 2020

AdaOpt (a probabilistic classifier based on a mix of multivariable optimization and nearest neighbors) for R May 22, 2020

AdaOpt May 15, 2020

Custom errors for cross-validation using crossval::crossval_ml May 8, 2020

Documentation+Pypi for the `teller`, a model-agnostic tool for Machine Learning explainability May 1, 2020

Encoding your categorical variables based on the response variable and correlations Apr 24, 2020

Linear model, xgboost and randomForest cross-validation using crossval::crossval_ml Apr 17, 2020

Grid search cross-validation using crossval Apr 10, 2020

Documentation for the querier, a query language for Data Frames Apr 3, 2020

Time series cross-validation using crossval Mar 27, 2020

On model specification, identification, degrees of freedom and regularization Mar 20, 2020

Import data into the querier (now on Pypi), a query language for Data Frames Mar 13, 2020

R notebooks for nnetsauce Mar 6, 2020

Version 0.4.0 of nnetsauce, with fruits and breast cancer classification Feb 28, 2020

Create a specific feed in your Jekyll blog Feb 21, 2020

Git/Github for contributing to package development Feb 14, 2020

Feedback forms for contributing Feb 7, 2020

nnetsauce for R Jan 31, 2020

A new version of nnetsauce (v0.3.1) Jan 24, 2020

ESGtoolkit, a tool for Monte Carlo simulation (v0.2.0) Jan 17, 2020

Search bar, new year 2020 Jan 10, 2020

2019 Recap, the nnetsauce, the teller and the querier Dec 20, 2019

Understanding model interactions with the `teller` Dec 13, 2019

Using the `teller` on a classifier Dec 6, 2019

Benchmarking the querier's verbs Nov 29, 2019

Composing the querier's verbs for data wrangling Nov 22, 2019

Comparing and explaining model predictions with the teller Nov 15, 2019

Tests for the significance of marginal effects in the teller Nov 8, 2019

Introducing the teller Nov 1, 2019

Introducing the querier Oct 25, 2019

Prediction intervals for nnetsauce models Oct 18, 2019

Using R in Python for statistical learning/data science Oct 11, 2019

Model calibration with `crossval` Oct 4, 2019

Bagging in the nnetsauce Sep 25, 2019

Adaboost learning with nnetsauce Sep 18, 2019

Change in blog's presentation Sep 4, 2019

nnetsauce on Pypi Jun 5, 2019

More nnetsauce (examples of use) May 9, 2019

nnetsauce Mar 13, 2019

crossval Mar 13, 2019

test Mar 10, 2019